16 teams. 8 best-of-seven first-round matches. One goal. What you need to know about the 2023 NBA Playoffs is provided here. The 2022–23 NBA regular season is over, and the NBA Playoffs — the biggest professional basketball competition in the world — will soon begin.
Here is all the information you need to know about the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Do not forget that in Venue One you can take your position in all NBA Playoffs games till the finals.
76ers vs.Nets
The 2023 NBA Playoffs will begin with the Philadelphia 76ers, the №3 seed in the East, taking on the Brooklyn Nets, the №6 seed. The Wells Fargo Center will host Game 1 on Sunday at 3 a.m. AEST. The Sixers outclassed the Nets during the regular season, sweeping the four-game season series.
The NBA playoff matchup between these two clubs will take place for the second time in five years. In their most recent postseason encounter, Philadelphia defeated the Nets in five games.
As the Sixers have their sights set on a higher prize and will look for, MVP front-runner, Joel Embiid to lead the way, this year’s playoff series could be entertaining. Nets, traded Kyrie Irving during regular season, but found a new star on Mikal Bridges, who averages 26 points since his Brooklyn arrival.
Regular Season Results
Nov. 22: Sixers 115, Nets 106
Jan. 25: Sixers 137, Nets 133
Feb. 11: Sixers 101, Nets 98
April 9: Sixers 134, Nets 105
Probabilities according to average betting odds: 76ers: 90% Nets: 10%
Probabilities based on Elo rating model: 76ers: 73% Nets: 27%, 76ers will win the series in 5 games.
Kings-Warriors
The Sacramento Kings are back in the NBA playoffs after a 17-year absence. Even better, they get home-court advantage for at least the first round as the third seed in the West.
On the other hand, The Golden State Warriors secured the playoffs on the final day of the regular season. The defending champs had a road record of 11–30, but travel fatigue won’t be a problem this time, as the Golden State Warriors need only 90 miles to travel to Sleep Train Arena.
In a series that everything is possible. Warriors rely on experience and Kings on youth.
Regular-season Results
Oct. 23: Warriors 130, Kings 125
Nov. 7: Warriors 116, Kings 113
Nov. 13: Kings 122, Warriors 115
April 7: Warriors 119, Kings 97
Probabilities according to average betting odds: Kings: 27% Warriors: 73%
Probabilities based on Elo rating model: Kings: 58% Warriors: 42%, Kings will win the series in 7 games.
Cavaliers-Knicks
Donovan Mitchell was on the verge of joining the Knicks when the Cavaliers shocked everyone by swooping in and grabbing the four-time All-Star. The two teams will now clash in the opening round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Mitchell led the Cavaliers offense with an average of just less than 30 points per game. He has also contributed to the №1 defense for the club (109.9 defensive rating), which is anchored by Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
After a poor 2021–22 season, the Knicks make their postseason return. The New York Knicks managed to enter to the playoffs based on their great offensive performance ranked 4th on offensive rating (117). Despite having won 3 out 4 regular season games, Cavaliers looking the best team overall, having a small edge on this series, which will become bigger pending in Julius Randle health condition for the series. Randle (ankle) status for Game 1 is still unknown.
Regular Season Results
Oct. 30: Cavaliers 121, Knicks 108
Dec. 4: Knicks 92, Cavaliers 81
Jan. 24: Knicks 105, Cavaliers 103
March 31: Knicks 130, Cavaliers 116
Probabilities according to average betting odds: Cavaliers: 70% Knicks: 30%
Probabilities based on Elo rating model: Cavaliers: 70% Knicks: 30%, Cavaliers will win the series in 6 games.
Suns vs. Clippers
At the trade deadline, the Suns added Kevin Durant in an effort to contend for a title this year, but it won’t be easy.
The Suns, who had the fourth-best record in the Western Conference at the end of the regular season, will play Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs.
The first-round contest will feature plenty of stars. Durant, Chris Paul, and Devin Booker on the one side, Leonard, Westrbrook and George on the other. Paul George though, might miss the first couple of games and this could prove crucial for Clippers chances to win the series.
Regular-season results:
Oct. 23: Suns 112, Clippers 95
Dec. 15: Suns 111, Clippers 95
Feb. 16: Clippers 116, Suns 107
April 9: Clippers 119, Suns 114
Probabilities according to average betting odds: Suns: 83% Clippers: 17%
Probabilities based on Elo rating model: Suns: 59% Clippers: 41%, Suns will win the series in 7 games.
Grizzlies vs.Lakers
After finishing with a 51–31 record, the Grizzlies earned the №2 seed in the Western Conference and the fourth-best record in franchise history heading into the 2023 NBA Playoffs. So what do they get in return for such an outstanding regular season? LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers
Since updating its roster at the trade deadline, Los Angeles has appeared to be a brand-new squad. The Lakers defeated Minnesota on Tuesday night in the Play-In Tournament game to secure their spot in the playoffs after going 16–7 after the All-Star break to move up to №7 in the Western Conference rankings.
Regular-season results:
Jan. 20: Lakers 122, Grizzlies 121
Feb. 28: Grizzlies 121, Lakers 109
March 7: Lakers 112, Grizzlies 103
Probabilities according to average betting odds: Grizzlies: 55% Lakers: 45%
Probabilities based on Elo rating model: Grizzlies: 70% Lakers: 30%, Grizzlies will win the series in 7 games.
Celtics vs. Hawks
The №2 seed Celtics will host the Hawks in the first round after the Hawks stunned the Heat in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament.
Atlanta out-rebounded Miami 63–39 in the Play-In. While Trae Young put on his normal fireworks display, scoring 25 points, grabbing eight rebounds, and dishing out seven assists, Clint Capela finished with 21 rebounds. The Hawks are now facing a Boston squad they have yet to defeat this season in a first-round showdown. Since 2016, when Al Horford was a member of the Hawks squad that eliminated the Celtics in the first round, the two franchises haven’t faced off in the NBA Playoffs.
Regular-season results:
Nov. 16: Celtics 126, Hawks 101
March 11: Celtics 134, Hawks 125
April 9: Celtics 120, Hawks 114
Probabilities according to average betting odds: Celtics: 90% Hawks: 10%
Probabilities based on Elo rating model: Celtics: 84% Hawks: 16%, Celtics will win the series in 5 games.
Nuggets and Bucks
Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks are still waiting for their opponent having already clinched No1 seed in West and East respectively. Nuggets will face the winner of Timberwolves vs. Thunder, where Bucks will play against the winner of Heat vs. Bulls.
Four Factors
In his book Basketball on Paper, Dean Oliver attempts to gain understanding of what constitutes victory in a basketball game and comes up with four elements that are essential to the outcome of every game. An offense’s goals for a team should be to increase shooting (eFG%), rebounding (DRB% and ORB%), ability to go to the line (FT Rate), and decrease turnovers per possession (TO%). Obviously, the team wants the exact opposite for its defense. Oliver assigned a 40% weighting to shooting, 25% to turnovers, 20% to rebounds, and 15% to the percentage of free throws made.
We applied a similar model using this year’s NBA statistics, to find out the importance of each factor in today’s game. According to the results, shooting is playing the most important part in a team’s winning rate throughout the season with 48% followed by turnovers (36%) rebound (17%) and free throw rate (0.09%). Furthermore, the correlation between shooting and winning rate was 0.78.
Having said that, let’s see which teams had the best performance in shooting for both offense and defense.
In the upper left quadrant are the teams that excel at eFG% in attack and defense at the same time. We can see that all the teams that belong there are playoff teams. It would be very interesting to see how NBA playoffs will unfold for the Sacramento Kings, a team that excels in offensive end quality of shooting, but performing under the average on the defensive end.
Here we can see how accurate the model is based on the actual winning rate of each team in this season. The closest to the red line, the better our model predicted the winning rate of the team. Teams that are displayed above the red (fitted) line are those for which our model anticipated, based on their averages in four criteria, that they would do better in terms of wins. Teams below the red (fitted) line, on the other hand, were overestimated in our model, resulting in more victories than predicted.
NBA Elo Ratings
The ELO Rating System, which was invented by Arpad Elo, is a zero-sum rating system that was initially created to determine the relative ability level among Chess players. The technique is still used today to gauge a team’s strength game by game in a number of sports, including the NBA.
We built our model on based on historical NBA Elo Ratings, using a K factor=20 and home advantage of 100. As a result, probability for each team to win a game was based on this mathematical equation.
P(team A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^((elo_B — elo_A + home_advantage)/400)).
Finally, we ran 10,000 simulations, in R, to compute the chances of each team in all 8 first round series. Results are shown above.
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